Helplessness and an Unknowable Outcome

Mandatory Credit: Photo by SERGEY VAGANOV/EPA-EFE/REX (10470310b) Ukrainian servicemen attend the forces disengagement near the Bohdanivka village, Ukraine, 09 November 2019. Head of the Joint Forces Operation HQ press center Andriy Ageyev has said the practical phase of the disengagement of troops and weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the occupying forces kicked off near the villages of Bohdanivka - Petrivske in Donbas on 09 November 2019. Ukraine and occupying forces disengagement commences, Bohdanivka - 09 Nov 2019

The possibility of an all-out war between Ukraine and Russia is a difficult thing to put into perspective. We have many grave problems to worry about, but it is hard to say what place it should be on the list of them. One thing is for certain though, we need to discuss it. Before that, I will now ask you the reader to do what I believe is necessary. Move your attention away from the death and misery that such an action would do to both the Ukrainian and Russian people for a moment. Let it return after this article has been completed, but until then focus fully on us. For this is a time when we must think about ourselves too.

In some way, it is a maddening feeling. The thought of so many different variables and potential outcomes to all of this. So much so that one might hope to forget about it entirely. Yet it is important to do our best in trying to make some sense of what could be or what we should do. Too often in our past, we have failed to do so.

The most obvious, though rather absurd question is on the topic of annexation. Specifically referring to Russian control of Transcarpathia. I shall not share my thoughts on the results of that possible event here, but I believe it is unlikely for a number of reasons. First is that this game is about geopolitics and keeping NATO (and by extension the US) away from Russia’s border and not domination for the sake of it. Simply taking everything east of Kiev, or even the former “Novorossiya” would suffice in making it clear to stop messing with their perceived buffer states and additionally solve Crimea’s water issues. This is not to say these things are moral or justified, but intent and reality must be acknowledged. Suffice to say I don’t believe holding onto Galicia is a particularly favorable-looking proposition either. I could continue to go on for pages more, but in short, it’s just not worth that much to discuss.

But what of long-drawn-out conflict that goes into months or years even if it is far from the Carpathians? In an event such as that, I see little in the way of hope in easing our situation. Increased nationalism. Increased hatred for the other (whether Russians or otherwise). I can see a result where Banderites are allowed to roam free more than they already are. If not that, then at least many citizens being swept up into the powerful machine of the wartime mindset. Maybe we are only minorly more repressed or at the other extreme called out as traitors and imprisoned. Perhaps the status quo will remain, but this type of situation if not allows it, at least makes disaster easier to occur. What would we do to counteract this if any of the scenarios were to actually happen? Have we even thought about it?

Or maybe at the end of the day, nothing happens at all. Life will continue on as it has been in a stalemate since 2014. This, if I am being honest with you, is what I find the most likely to be correct. The hilarious thing is that it is an irrational conviction. A simple feeling from what I have seen and know without any genuine insider knowledge. Nothing more than a hope for peace.

What is most important about all this muck and anxiety though is something else entirely. It is the feeling of helplessness. To suffer the consequences of whatever idiot from a faraway capital decides. We do not have an alternative to that now or maybe ever, but that doesn’t mean we should hide from its ugliness. Remember the feeling that these news articles and conversations with relatives have given you. This is but a small slice of what our ancestors tasted through the previous few centuries. I can’t say it makes me think of any better way to react, but perhaps it will for one of you.