Dear the West,
As flurries of carnage break out across Ukraine, and the fog of war covers the minds of all paying attention, the realization of its cause seems so elusive. How did things go so wrong? Beyond Crimea, Putin’s ambitions, and more importantly the history between these two nations, there lies a more uncomfortable truth. It was in part our belief that the end of history had come.
Wrapped inside the neoliberal shell of the post-cold war age was a complete disregard for realism in geopolitical affairs. With the threat of nuclear war over, there seemed to be a golden path in front. A dream that we were the beacon of democracy that would shine the light for the rest of the world. We had won after all, and there was no one left to stop us. We knew what was better for someone more than they knew themselves. It was just so blatantly obvious that economic prosperity would lead to democracy and by extension the notion that this system is fundamentally the best one of them all right? That very belief in our strength and wisdom may very well be our eventual undoing.
It is these notions that would make one believe everyone could be like us. It is this daze which would make the attempt to democratize Afghanistan and waste trillions of dollars seem like a good idea. That hope that pumping money into a totalitarian society like China would somehow make them democratic because that was its destiny. Worst of all though, it makes a caricature of all those different from us. Where the realistic outlook on strategy was seen as psychotic, if not psychopathic. Many of us saw Russia as a mere fiction of a nation, not one with real interests and strategy. A simple warmonger that had one desire for total control over the known world.
Back when Russia was in the middle of wars in Chechnya, our societies continued to gain wealth at an unpredicted rate. They were so weak that keeping to our promises like the halting of NATO expansion were seen as easy things to brush aside. But that day has passed, and those in Moscow still remember what promises were broken. The corruption and pathetic democracy of the Yeltsin era that Americans so cheerfully like to call a time where democracy could have flourished. They tell you this through their speeches and writings. Hell, Putin has said this nearly since the day he stepped into office in 2000. You should watch his speech from 2007 in Munich if you haven’t. This continuous thread is clear to see for those that look hard enough. It is not merely the desire for a regeneration of the Russian empire, but the fear that what we do is a threat to the Russian state itself. In truth, they have a point.
Would we ever let Russia affect the internal politics of Canada as the US did with the events of 2014? And yes, any legitimate observer will tell you the US at the bare minimum helped exacerbate the larger geopolitical situation whether intended or not. Even if they didn’t mean to, the optics of having the likes of John McCain in Kiev were no doubt horrible. The above question is rhetorical because the answer is so obvious no one even needs to think. We can easily look to Cuba to see the results when a pawn of the American apparatus goes awry. So then why would a country invaded three times from its west in the last two centuries not do something too? Not thinking they would is a fundamental misunderstanding of how the world actually works. No country will just lay down and die.
The blood of this conflict does not simply lie on the Russian invaders, but those who made foolish promises to a battered Ukrainian nation that even itself is divided along cultural lines. It was an assurance that our soldiers and the European Union would protect them. Now except for some weapons and ammunition Ukrainians are on their own. We should have not promised such things if we were unable to keep them. I do not think it was in their best interest to alienate their neighbor, and maybe not even ours.
What else can be said though is that the invasion of Ukraine is nothing other than appalling. Thousands of people will perish and millions more will be forever scarred by these events and whatever the next few months have in store. There had to have been a better way forward, and it is the fault of the Kremlin for not taking it. But international politics does not work on moral standards. It never has. Giving the impression that somehow it did, was pure foolishness. If we walk this same path only more pain will come for those that follow our lead. Shame on us for endangering the lives of millions with our idiocy.
Now. On to the war.
Something about this conflict so far feels terribly off to me, and yet I cannot put it succinctly yet. It is as if the occasion we are witnessing has been made into a spectacle of some sort. For what purpose or if I am even on to something at all I do not know. From the false stories of the Ghost of Kiev which turn out to be from a video game to the snake island soldiers presumed dead but now thought to be alive, it is safe to assume anything from official Ukrainian sources is up for questioning. Furthermore, the laughably awful state of the Russian military and equipment that is shown through online media seems credible enough, yet also does not line exactly line up their supposed large gains in the previous days.
If one were to only look at Twitter or other select sources, it would seem like the B team was sent out with some spare parts than a legitimate invasion. Perhaps this is just how the war machine operates in the present day (with it a lot of unintended misinformation and concealment I’m sure), but if so wouldn’t we at least catch a glimpse of Spetnatz or tanks newer than the First Chechen War with legitimate air support by now? After this posting, proof may come out on this supposed higher level of warfare from them. As of now I have not found any.
There are reports of towns letting Russian troops come in freely in oblasts such as Kherson. Zelenskyy’s statement that Turkey closed the black sea to the Russians seems to be a complete fabrication. For whatever reason Chernobyl seems like it was a key objective with how it was one of the first areas taken. Is this miscalculation? Incompetence? Part of a larger strategy we don’t know yet?
As one might expect, it is hard to parse one event from another. The Ukrainian military might be a lot stronger than anyone would have thought with the announced repulsions of Russian forces from major strategic points, yet they seem to fail completely in other areas such as the south by Crimea. On the other hand, the Russian army could truly be in as bad of a state as shown. More likely though it seems they are holding back their best for now. Any combination of these things can be true, but it begs the question of why the coverage of this conflict is so struck with horrible reporting? Better yet, what the hell is going on over there and in the minds of leaders?
As stated before in our official statement, I stand with Ukraine in their right to territorial sovereignty. It is not their fault for this conflict and never has been. This will not, however, stop me from questioning the official narrative of what is going on or being skeptical of what either side is pumping out right now. It seems that the truth of the exact situation is barely known to anyone, especially those not in command or on the ground. For our sake, we must remain calm and analyze the situation clearly without falling for propaganda.
To those in Ukraine fighting side by side with others to protect your homeland, I wish you good luck and safety. To Rusyns in EU countries and other readers elsewhere, let us keep these people in our minds right now. Donate, write, and support what you feel comfortable with doing. They need all the help we can give them right now. Remember to keep your wits about you no matter if it’s from one side or the other. Being blind to reality will do no good to anyone.