Speaking to many in the Rusyn community, there have been a few instances where I’ve heard people discuss the possibility of a Rusyn state existing in the modern world – a United Carpathian Rus’. Considering that the idea of this nation itself is extremely improbable in 2022, especially given the current situation in Ukraine and the political chaos that would unfold, I oftentimes just ignore this possibility. In and of itself, the political reasons why this sort of state would not be viable could be written into a two-inch-thick book. But recently, I did start to wonder what this state would look like, and the hardships it would face. The more that I pondered, the more I realized the complexities of the situation would just make it even more and more unlikely. I often recall that the Lemko Republic did exist at one point, although it was never an officially recognized state, the same as the one-day state of Carpatho-Ukraine during World War 2.
After a great deal of contemplating, I came to the inevitable conclusion that beyond the evident political complexities for why this scenario would be unlikely, the economic factors, or lack thereof, would perhaps be the most significant issue for a modern-day state of Carpathian Rus’. If Carpathian Rus’ were to be united and sovereign, then it’s very likely that this imagery nation would likely be so economically destitute and politically insignificant that it’s likely it would collapse in on itself within a generation or two.
In order to paint this scenario as accurately as possible, I made several assumptions and considerations for simplification purposes. Do I use historical Rusyn territory or only modern Rusyn inhabited lands? What about Lemkovyna?
First and foremost, I am essentially ignoring Lemkovyna in this equation. I am purely doing this because drawing an accurate map of modern Lemkovyna is quite difficult. Modern-day Lemkos are scattered throughout Poland due to Operation Vistula; as a result, only perhaps a few dozen villages in Lemkovyna are inhabited by Lemkos. So, for simplification purposes, I’m going to assume that a good amount of Lemko villages would be included in this modern state; however, conducting an economic analysis of Lemko inhabited towns and villages is unnecessary due to their small size, and moreover because the likely minuscule impact they would have on the economy of this hypothetical state.
What would the rest of the borders of this state look like, and which cities would be included?
I am going to include the majority of the Rusyn lands of the Pryashiv Region in addition to Subcarpathia in this theoretical country, and even include the city of Pryashiv. I recognize that cities such as Uzhhorod and Pryashiv are quite cosmopolitan and diverse, and perhaps would not be inhabited by Rusyns as the majority. Yet without including these major cities, there is no point in even theorizing this, since, in my opinion, without these larger cities acting as economic centers and administrative capitals, any sort of large-scale industry is impossible to occur in this hypothetical country.
Essentially, the map below will very roughly be the outlines of the modern state I am describing, minus some parts of historical Lemkovyna, plus the City of Pryashiv.
The modern Subcarpathia, Pryashiv Region, and Lemkovyna are some of the poorest regions in their respective modern countries. And furthermore, this was typically true when looking back at history as well. I would argue that the Rusyns have been both historically blessed and cursed. Blessed in the sense that the land they have lived on is naturally beautiful – the Carpathian Mountain region offers breathtaking landscapes and truly is an underrated area in Europe for tourism. In addition, the mountainous and isolated landscape has allowed Rusyns and further Rusyn culture to survive various wars and invasions throughout the centuries, so much so that during the world wars there were many Rusyn villages that wouldn’t see even a second of any fighting. Nevertheless, Rusyns have been cursed when it comes to economic success historically, which frankly is partially due to the mountainous and isolated landscape. In the Kingdom of Hungary, the region was considered one of the poorest and least developed, especially by the time the Dual Monarchy was established in the 19th century.
This is certainly why many Rusyns migrated to the New World at the turn of the century – they hailed from a region that had poor economic prospects and made the dangerous trek to the United States in order to make money and send it back to relatives in the homeland seemed promising. Examining the emigrations trends of Slovakia, Slovaks and Rusyns that migrated to the New World came from the less developed Eastern Slovakia in much more significant numbers when compared to those inhabiting the modern region of Western Slovakia.
With that being said, I will conduct a basic economic analysis of the modern Pryashiv Region and Subcarpathia, comparing the conditions of both regions to understand why creating a country out of these regions would be economically disastrous.
Slovakia was labeled the “Tatra Tiger” during the 2000s, recognized as one of the fastest growing economies in Europe during this period. Significant amounts of foreign direct investments started rolling in and the economy experienced massive growth, especially following the ascension of Slovakia to the European Union. However, this massive economic growth is only limited, for the most part, to Bratislava – Slovakia’s Capital – and the surrounding regions of Western Slovakia. When looking at the eastern half of the country, the homeland of much of the Rusyns, The Pryashiv Region commonly lags in terms of economic development and GDP per capita when compared to the rest of Slovakia. In addition, foreign direct investment certainly lingers behind the rest of Slovakia when it comes to the Pryashiv Region. The largest industries in the region are woodworking, agriculture, textiles, and a limited amount of chemical and electrotechnical production. Unfortunately, over the past several years, the more profitable industries such as electrotechnical have been in decline, only worsening the current situation.
The unemployment rate of the Pryashiv Region has sat at around 10% over the past several years, and the percentage of the population at risk of poverty is nearly 20%. Both of these figures are significantly higher than the western regions of Slovakia, especially Bratislava, where both of these statistics lay below 5%. This perfectly illustrates the regional wealth inequalities that face Slovakia and have been since independence in 1992.
Interestingly, while the Pryashiv region sees significant out-migration, natural population growth has essentially been balancing out the net population. However, the region also has a significantly aging population, which in the long term will only bring out less favorable conditions for economic growth. This is also contributing to a brain drain, where many of the highest-skilled laborers and educated workers are leaving for higher-paying jobs that are found in cities like Bratislava, Vienna, or Prague.
In retrospect, the economic conditions in the Pryashiv region today and future outlook does not look very favorable at all. Taking a looking at Subcarpathiaa, surprisingly, there are some factors that are more favorable in comparison. Yet, it is not really promising in the grand scheme of things.
Much like the Pryashiv Region, Subcarpathia is also one of the poorest regions in Ukraine. The largest industries in Subcarpathia today are woodworking, much like in Slovakia, light industry, light agriculture, and the production of machinery. The GDP per capita is also quite lower than that of the richer regions, including Kyiv. In the most recent survey, the GDP per capita of Subcarpathia is around 2,000 USD, while the average for the entirety of Ukraine sits at around twice that. Kyiv, for comparison, has a GDP per capita of over 13,000 USD, over six times higher than Subcarpathia. The economic conditions when comparing Subcarpathia/Kyiv and the Pryashiv Region/Bratislava they are stunningly similar. Both regions are critically poorer when compared to their respective capital cities.
Foreign Direct Investment in Subcarpathia is occurring at a slightly higher rate than in the Rusyn areas of Slovakia, mostly coming from neighboring Hungarian companies. Although this doesn’t say much, since overall foreign direct in Ukraine is quite low when compared to many other European nations, primarily due to corruption and poor corporate governance and ethics. Regardless, Kyiv’s economic prosperity is much more significant than most parts of Ukraine. Kyiv has allowed many foreign companies to operate and has been attempting to attract more foreign direct investment year over year by passing laws more favorable to foreign business operations, in addition to repairing old infrastructure to increase tourism. Foreign direct investment is vital in countries that have developing economies since it encourages new varieties of capital inputs and diverse sources of investment and technology to come into a region, thereby stimulating the local economy and creating a prosperous environment for the inhabitants to take advantage of with the potential higher paying jobs.
Demographically speaking, the population has been decreasing steadily in Subcarpathia since Ukraine’s independence, and there has been a similar brain drain that has been seen in the region as in Eastern Slovakia. The brain drain will likely make FDI less attractive to more wealthy nations and investors since their potential employee base would in theory be shrinking with a brain drain, thus, it’s likely the investor nations would simply look elsewhere in this case.
The one advantage that Subcarpathia has is the existence of larger cities of Mukachevo and Uzhhorod. Heavier industry and commerce are more likely to flourish and be sustained in higher populated urban areas, so therefore there exists this one large advantage when compared to Slovakia, since Pryashiv would be the only larger town/city. Further, from the perspective of Western nations, Subcarpathia is seen as a link between East and West, the political center of Europe, and a direct commercial bridge between many different countries in the region. These factors have been partially responsible for the uptick in foreign direct investment in addition to commercial activity in the region, especially from Hungarian firms.
A modern nation-state combined with these two regions will indeed face several major issues. The first is not only a low aggregate population of roughly under 2 million people but also a decreasing population in the long term. While birth rates continue to be quite high in the Pryashiv region, eventually, the aging population pyramid will catch up to this. It is already hard to convince young people to remain living in a region that offers only low-paying jobs and not many diverse career opportunities. This is the same reason why people move from Northeastern Pennsylvania to New York City/Philadelphia, from Romania to Germany, or from a small village in southern Slovakia to Bratislava. Young professionals, especially those with either highly skilled trades or professional degrees will find more economic opportunities in already established large cosmopolitan cities than in their small hometowns. Further, trade union activities are more likely to be stronger in these larger cities, hence attracting workers from all backgrounds.
Thus, the lack of any major cities with already established economic prosperity and dominance will continually be a detriment for this fictional Rusyn nation. Uzhhorod and Pryashiv both are small-medium-sized cities and can act as economic centers for the nation; however, these cities are too small in size and influence and do not have enough significant industrial and commercial output to function as catalysts of economic growth at this time. That is not to say that these two cities could in theory become more economically prosperous in the future. But as of right now, neither of these cities would be able to support a large sudden intake of the population moving there from the surrounding countryside due to poor funding of infrastructure. Further, the cities would struggle to become seen as attractive to workers and young professionals that are seeking work from outside of this fictional country. Whether you agree with the idea of it politically or not, the most economically prosperous nations in the 21st century are always centers of mass immigration due to the opportunities they afford their residents. The United States during the heart of the Industrial Revolution of the late 19th century was in dire need of workers and laborers, and thus many from Eastern Europe flocked to work in her Steel/Textile Mills, Coal Mines and factories. Even today the United States along with Western European nations such as Britain and Germany are seen in a similar light. Pryashiv and Uzhhorod would need to be seen as cities that someone from Belarus, Moldova, or Romania would want to migrate to, in order to live a more prosperous life than in their hometowns/countries. With the current situation of these two cities in mind, this is not likely nor not probable now or anytime in the near future.
This is not to say that there would not be objective cultural advantages to the formation of a Rusyn state. Certainly, many Rusyns would find harmony in the fact that Rusyn language and culture could be officially solidified. The full institutionalization of Rusynness would occur with a Rusyn nation existing. However, I think we must not forget to ask ourselves that in the current world we live in, given the influence of global capitalism, how utterly impoverished this Rusyn state would be. Looking at current events, one of the more significant reasons why Hungary doesn’t actually want to annex or incorporate Subcarpathia into their nation is because it would be seen as a region that only brings the nation down economically. These are similar sentiments shared by West Germans when describing East Germany, which still has not fully reached the level of prosperity of West Germany even 30 years after communism. Western Slovaks oftentimes see East Slovaks as economic burdens, unfortunately. Sure, other nations such as Moldova, Transnistria, and North Macedonia exist under similar economic conditions to what this fictional Rusyn nation would be. However, given the reality of the situation, how long would this hypothetical Rusyn nation actually survive as an entity? If the birth rates declined, external migration was low, and economic inequalities heightened along with destitute general economic conditions, in a few generations the people of this nation’s quality of life would be comparable to people living in the Soviet Union prior to the Second World War – no one would want to live here.
On the flip side, if this nation-state were to have any economic chance to succeed, there are two things that would have to occur. The first of these is attracting a significant amount of foreign direct investment, which could be done in theory by creating laws that benefit business creation and growth, and furthermore, lenient tax laws for corporations. The second would be encouraging population centers such as Uzhhorod and Pryashiv to grow in population both by migration from rural areas into the urban areas, in addition to the encouragement of migration into these cities from immigrants outside the country. But there is no guarantee this would be successful, as a matter of fact, would likely not even mend the situation much in the first place. The cities of Pryashiv and Uzhhorod would already be competing for skilled laborers and educated workers as well as a foreign direct investment with the nearby industrial city of Kosice in Slovakia, let alone with the economic powerhouses of Budapest, Bratislava, and Kyiv. As previously mentioned, it is very unlikely that these two cities would be able to garner any sort of economic growth without a colossal influx of frankly an unprecedented amount of foreign direct investment in addition to a generation of young Rusyn entrepreneurs seeking to create several industries unique to this region from the ground up.
One aspect of the future that would perhaps benefit this sort of national experiment is the phenomenon of work from home becoming the norm in a post-pandemic world. Citizens and individuals with high-paying jobs such as Software Developers or Management Consultants can be employed from larger cities yet remain where they live. Thus, they can spend their high-paying salaries in local businesses thereby stimulating the local economies. However, on a large enough scale to be truly effective, this would still be improbable. Convincing these highly skilled workers to stay where they are from would be difficult in the first place unless economic prosperity has already arrived.
In retrospect, bearing in mind that the Pryashiv Region and Subcarpathia are both the most economically disadvantaged regions of their current nations, the idea of combing these two regions into a single political entity would leave the nation-state destitute from the get-go and would likely not survive as a country for long. Of course, not everything is about pure economics, and not every nation necessarily needs a strong economy to be decently well off as a cultural and political entity in the world. However, from the modern-day point of view, in the current post-Cold War/neoliberal capitalist world order, healthy economies are necessary for nations to exert influence and be taken as serious contenders in regional and global affairs. Current nations with blighted economic situations such as Kosovo and Moldova do not have successful futures and further are not taken seriously in regional affairs. And as I mentioned before, things could change for the Rusyns, industries could return to the region, and there is the chance that one day Rusyns in the homelands could escape unfortunate economic conditions without the need to leave the region; perhaps the new work from home phenomenon could be the solution for that. But as of right now, these prospects are unrealistic, and Rusyns should now focus on revitalizing the language and helping bring back industries while simultaneously creating new businesses in the region; this way, young people would want to continue living in the homeland for generations to come.